Consumer confidence remains weak in July

The balance figure of the consumer confidence indicator was minus 8.8 in July, which was the same as in June and May, according to Statistics Finland.

One year ago in July, the consumer confidence indicator (CCI) received the value minus 15.9.

The long-term average for the CCI is minus 2.2.

The data are based on Statistics Finland’s consumer confidence survey, to which 1,025 persons resident in Finland responded between 1 and 18 July.

Consumers' views of their own economy at present weakened slightly both from the previous month and from one year earlier and were on a very weak level.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and also Finland's economy in 12 months' time were still subdued. Expectations remained almost unchanged in a month but improved clearly from a year ago.

The time was still regarded very unfavourable for buying durable goods. Purchasing intentions were generally very low. Intentions to buy a dwelling were similar to the long-term average.

Estimates of inflation at the time of the survey and expectations of inflation in one year's time were nearly unchanged and high. Consumers' views concerning the development of unemployment and their personal threat were on the average level.

Consumers considered their own financial situation fairly good, but their possibilities of saving were thought in future slightly worse than in general.

In July, consumer confidence was strongest in Greater Helsinki (CCI minus 2.7).

Confidence was weakest elsewhere in Southern Finland (minus 15.4). Of population groups, self-employed persons were most optimistic (minus 2.2) in July.

Pensioners clearly had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development (minus 18.7).

As many as 32 per cent of consumers thought in July that their own economy was weaker than one year ago.

Twenty-two per cent of consumers regarded their own economy stronger at the time of the survey than one year ago. Sixty-five per of consumers thought that Finland’s economy was now worse than one year earlier, and only seven per cent saw it better.

In July, 23 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 33 per cent of them thought that our country’s economy would deteriorate. In all, 29 per cent of consumers believed in July that their own economy would improve, but 19 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Consumers’ expectations about the development of the general unemployment situation in Finland remained almost unchanged and on the long-term average level. Twenty-three per cent of consumers expected that unemployment would decrease over the year and 32 per cent believed it would increase.

Employed consumers (wage and salary earners and self-employed persons) reckoned in July that their personal threat of unemployment or lay-off had grown a little. However, the threat was estimated to be similar to the long-term average. Six per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened and 16 per cent thought the risk had grown. Around one half or 48 per cent of employed persons felt in July that they were not threatened by unemployment or temporary lay-off at all.

In July, consumers' estimates of the inflation at the time of the survey and their expectations concerning the rate of change in prices in one year's time remained nearly unchanged and on a high level.

Consumers estimated in July that consumer prices have risen by 7.8 per cent from last year’s July and would go up by 4.3 per cent over the next year. Altogether 88 per cent of consumers thought that prices had gone up much or fairly much over the year. Clearly fewer, or 32 per cent of consumers expected prices to rise at least at the same rate in coming months as well.

As in the preceding few months, the time in July was considered very poor for taking out a loan and also for saving. Just nine per cent of consumers regarded the time favourable for taking out a loan and 37 per cent considered saving worthwhile. At the same time, intentions to take out a loan were also fairly low. In July, 15 per cent of consumers were planning to take out a loan within one year.

Consumers considered their own financial situation to be fairly good in July. However, it was estimated that there would be slightly fewer saving possibilities in the coming months than in general. Fifty-seven per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 70 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In July, the time was still regarded very unfavourable for buying durable goods. Only nine per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for making expensive purchases.

Consumers’ intentions to spend money on durable goods in the next 12 months were still very low in July. There was not much change in purchasing intentions compared to June and one year ago. In July, only eight per cent of consumers estimated they would increase and 44 per cent planned on reducing their spending on durable goods over the next 12 months.

In July, there were slightly fewer plans than usual to buy a car during the next 12 months. Intentions to buy a dwelling were on the long-term average level, while plans to renovate one's dwelling were lower than usual in July.

In July, only 13 per cent of consumers were either definitely or possibly going to buy a passenger car during the next 12 months. Twelve per cent of consumers considered buying a dwelling or building a house. Fifteen per cent of consumers were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling during the next 12 months.