Bank of Finland for fiscal preparation for next downturn

The Bank of Finland on Tuesday said Finland has passed the peak of economic growth in the current cycle.

In its prognosis, the bank described a declining trend in growth. From its 2018 estimate of 2.7 percent, the growth would shrink to 1.9 percent in 2019 and to 1.7 percent in 2020.

Olli Rehn, governor of the Bank of Finland, told national broadcaster Yle that now would be the "time to build buffers for meeting the next recession." He reminded that even "small growth is growth."

Rehn said he does not want to criticize the government, nor the opposition, but noted that fiscal policies in Finland in recent years has been somewhat "lighter than would have been expected."

Rehn also said the upcoming climate change should be taken into account. He described the climate change as a "huge market disturbance."

"Future generations of Finns must be able to build their lives without having to combat with the debts and environmental problems of the previous generations," he said.

Meri Obstbaum, acting research director of the Bank of Finland, said the declining work age population and the problems of the enterprises to find qualified employees will impact the growth in the future.

In a news conference on Tuesday, she singled out supply of labor as "a future bottle neck" if "structural reforms are not carried out."

She said Finnish exports will continue to grow, but uncertainty about the world economy and the weaker vistas for the euro zone increase the likelihood that economic development will lag behind that forecast.

The declining trend in the prognosis of the Bank of Finland is in line with other recent predictions about the Finnish economy.