Italy prepares for Phase-2 as coronavirus patients decrease

The coronavirus pandemic has claimed over 27,600 lives in locked-down Italy, bringing the total number of infections, fatalities and recoveries so far to 203,591, according to the latest data released by the country's Civil Protection Department on Wednesday.

The daily death toll on Wednesday was 323, bringing the total to 27,682 fatalities since the pandemic first broke out in the northern Lombardy region.

Wednesday saw 548 fewer active infections and 2,311 more recoveries compared to Tuesday, bringing the nationwide totals to 104,657 and 71,252 respectively.

PATIENT NUMBER DOWN

In its bulletin, the Civil Protection confirmed the downward trend recently seen in the number of COVID-19 patients in serious and critical conditions, namely those needing to be hospitalized and to be put in intensive care units (ICUs), respectively.

Of all those actively infected, there are 1,795 patients in intensive care -- a decrease by 68 patients compared to Tuesday, and 19,210 are hospitalized with symptoms -- down by 513, according to the daily data.

"Some 83,652 people, equal to 80 percent of all those infected, are in isolation (at home) without symptoms or with mild symptoms," the Civil Protection stated.

Italy entered into a national lockdown on March 10 to contain the pandemic. The lockdown, expected to last until May 3, will be followed by a so-called "Phase Two," which involves the gradual resumption of social, economic and productive activities.

Beginning May 4, the manufacturing, construction, and wholesale sectors can resume work. Following them are retailers, museums, galleries, and libraries on May 18, and bars, restaurants, hairdressers and beauty salons on June 1. All businesses will have to follow rigorous workplace safety protocols.

EQUIPPED FOR "PHASE TWO"

In a hearing before the Lower House finance committee, procurement commissioner for the coronavirus emergency Domenico Arcuri, said that in terms of ventilators and intensive care units, the country is now "equipped to handle even higher (pandemic) peaks than those marking the first phase of the emergency."

"We currently have some 1,980 beds in intensive care occupied out of total 9,000 available," Arcuri told lawmakers.

"Beds in infectious diseases and respiratory wards, which were about 30,000 (at the beginning of the outbreak), have multiplied by six," he added.

The official explained 4,200 ventilators have so far been allocated across the country to strengthen hospitals' capability to cope with the worst cases of the pandemic, and more are available, so that this figure "could be doubled in a few days" if necessary.

Yet, Arcuri specified, stockpiled ventilators and extra gear have not been distributed yet, as it is necessary to wait and see whether and where new outbreaks would emerge after the lockdown is partially lifted.

REVENUE DROP UNSEEN IN 50 YEARS

In a separate hearing to budget committees, Head of Bank of Italy Economics and Statistics Department Eugenio Gaiotti said the projections provided by the government's Economic and Financial Document (DEF) are "consistent with the current crisis scenario."

The economic blueprint, which contains the country's multi-year plan for public finances and economic strategies, was passed by the Italian cabinet on April 24, and it will need to be approved by the parliament.

"According to the estimates contained in the DEF, overall revenues will drop by almost 6 percent in the current year compared to 2019; and such drop would be unprecedented, at least in the last 50 years," Gaiotti explained.

The state revenues loss would be only partially retrieved in 2021, according to the forecasts.

"Excluding revenues originated by a possible activation of safeguard clauses on indirect taxes, the DEF forecasts would suggest overall revenues in 2021 exceed by some 4 percent of those in 2020," the official told lawmakers.

In this perspective, the Bank of Italy showed appreciation for the government's relief measures to help households and firms bear the economic impact of the health crisis.

Such measures "are contributing to contain the repercussions on families, and to avoid a liquidity crisis that would have had very serious consequences," Gaiotti said in the hearing, adding that the public action of the state would be necessary also to ensure economic recovery once the emergency is over.

For this reason, the official said they shared "the assessment contained in the DEF suggesting that economy will need an appropriate period of support and revitalization, during which restrictive fiscal policies would be counterproductive."

In the DEF, the government set Italy's target deficit at 10.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020, and at 5.7 percent in 2021, while public debt was forecast at 155.7 percent and 152.7 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Last year, Italy posted a deficit of 1.6 percent of GDP, and a debt ratio of 134.8 percent.