Brexit implies challenges, opportunities for both sides

It will be the biggest party in Europe for 60 years, celebrating the anniversary of the creation of what is now the European Union (EU).

As leaders of member states of the EU converge in Rome where the original treaty was signed on March 25 of 1957, it poses the question -- Will Brexit and the emergence of populism be seen as party poopers?

British Prime Minister Theresa May has already said she won't be heading to Italy's capital to join the leaders of the other 27 EU member states. Instead she'll be busy finalizing her letter to Brussels to inform the EU next Wednesday of Britain's decision to leave what is one of the world's biggest trading blocs.

In exclusive interviews with Xinhua, two experts give their views on what impact Brexit, and populism, will have on the EU as it starts to look ahead to its next 60 years.

BREXIT, POPULISM

Prof. Erika Harris is an international expert on nations and nationalism, based at the University of Liverpool. She is also co-director of the Europe and the World Centre (EWC).

Harris, born in Slovakia when it was known as Czechoslovakia, believes Brexit will frustrate European integration, but not completely as she believes Britain was always a reluctant member of the EU.

She believes Brexit will be particularly regretted by central European countries that always look towards Britain as a champion of liberal economic reforms.

"Nevertheless, the departure of Britain gives a lot of ground to other anti-European politicians. We have seen this with Geert Wilders of the PVV party in Holland and Marine Le Pen, (and) president of the National Front in France," she said.

"I'm afraid that Brexit has certain overlaps with what is happening in the United States. But we are seeing that throughout Europe," she added.

Populism sprung up particularly after the 2008 economic crisis, "though I don't think Brexit sprung up necessarily from the same source. I think it has been brewing in British politics for a very long time," Harris said.

"Populism appears to have been instigated by the global economic crisis, but there are other reasons. There is a sense among people that they can no longer trust politics. There is a blurring of boundaries about what is true, not true, right or wrong," she added.

In Britain there is not much room for new parties to establish themselves. UKIP, with all the media coverage they get, have just one member of parliament, she said.

"But in continental Europe with proportional representation systems, the populist parties are not going anywhere. The populist right-wing party in Denmark has been in the government coalition for the past 10 years. In Austria, populists are slowly becoming part of the political landscape," Harris pointed out.

INTEGRATION QUESTION

Harris feels there will be attempts by the EU to co-ordinate defense policy, migration, and seek more agreement among member states on migrant quotas.

"The EU is very resilient, it is not the first crisis for it. I don't believe that when Britain leaves in two years time people will be better off or happier; I can't see what the difference will be," she said.

Dr Michael Holmes, senior lecturer in politics at Liverpool Hope University and senior visiting researcher at the European School of Politics in Lille of France, is a leading spokesman on British relations with Europe, and on political parties and euro skepticism.

He described Brexit as an opportunity and a challenge. "There are plenty of politicians and activists who see integration not as some kind of a march of history but as a practical solution to day-to-day challenges of governance. They are the ones who view Brexit as something of an opportunity."

Britain was always seen as an awkward partner in the EU system, constantly drawing red lines and opting out of deals and just saying no. So its departure might give a bit more room for some effective, and much needed reform of the EU, Holmes said.

"Brexit and populism are not synonymous. There are some very sensible, non-populist reasons for some people to have voted for the UK to leave. Populists elsewhere do not all espouse the same ideas as UKIP or the other UK Leavers.

Italy's Beppe Grillo from the Five Star Movement wants a referendum on exiting the euro, but not on exiting the EU, just like Marine Le Pen. Many others are somewhere in the euroskeptic camp, but not actually looking to head to the door, he said.

"On several occasions, the EU has responded to apparent crises and setbacks not by wringing its hands and worrying in a corner, but by trying to use the challenge as a sling-shot to launch a new, more ambitious step. Not just to overcome the initial problem, but actively to promote further, deeper integration," Holmes said.

If the French, German and Italian elections go like the recent Dutch elections, a renewed European initiative is not out of the question.

"The difficulty is what direction that might take. A Merkel-Macron axis might go one path; (Benoit) Hamon-Schulz one would be quite different," Holmes noted.