Time racing by for Brexit deal

Time is ticking for Brexit negotiations to conclude but so far each decisive round of talks has struggled to make ground on the last.

The latest round of discussion is to kick off in Brussels on Monday after talks in London, which concluded Friday, made little progress.

Deadlines for a future deal are tumbling as the United Kingdom nears the precipitous official exit date at midnight on 31 December 2020.

Both London and Brussels previously said they believed it possible to land a signed and sealed the future deal by mid-October.

That date arrived, and there was no deal. The negotiating parties ignored the deadline they had both agreed to and opted instead to “intensify” discussions and try to have an agreement by the end of October.

The end of October came and went without a deal. Talks, which are alternating between venues in London and Brussels, remain hung up on several key issues, including fishing policy, financial regulation and justice.

One deadline that is not arbitrary is 1 January 2021, when the UK will disentangle itself from the bloc.

Without a future deal in place, London will automatically default to World Trade Organisation tariffs in its dealings with EU members.

The UK is leaving one of the biggest trading blocs in the world. The EU has 44 trade deals in place, covering 76 countries, which accounts for a third of its foreign trade as of 2019.

The EU’s massive trade deals with Canada and Japan boosted trade by 25% and 6% respectively since they came into force.

The UK government has managed to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Japan, but not Canada.

A series of international and domestic political changes could change the landscape of the Brexit negotiations somewhat.

United States President-elect Joe Biden, proud of his Irish heritage, has predicted a future trade deal with the UK on the Brexit deal respecting the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which put an end to decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland.

The UK government of Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson is trying to push through legislation that would allow ministers to unilaterally alter the Northern Ireland protocol, a mechanism agreed by the UK and the EU to ensure a soft border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

If London pursues that approach, the EU could erect customs offices on the border in the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state, which would breach the 1998 peace agreement.

It remains to be seen how Johnson will adapt to Biden after his comfortable relationship with Donald Trump.

Closer to home for the prime minister, all eyes are on how the departure of his close advisor, Dominic Cummings, one of the key figures behind Brexit, will impact negotiations.