Far-right AfD strong ahead of eastern German state elections: Poll

A new opinion poll shows the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 30% support in the eastern German states of Thuringia and Saxony - and a shot at taking first place in state elections in both places on September 1, reported dpa.

In Saxony, incumbent state premier Michael Kretschmer's centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) appear to hold a narrow lead over the AfD with 33% support, but within the margin of error of three percentage points, according to the poll conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on behalf of public broadcaster ZDF.

In Thuringia, the AfD's 30% support in the same poll puts them well in the lead. The party's leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, is a far-right firebrand who's well-known in the country for controversial remarks and has twice been convicted in court for knowingly using a banned Nazi slogan in speeches.

Domestic intelligence agencies in both states have classified the AfD as known far-right extremist groups.

A new populist party launched by left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), also has strong support for an upstart group and placed third in both states in the poll.

BSW drew 11% of voters in Saxony, the poll found, while in Thuringia the group polled at 17%.

Wagenknecht broke with her former party, the hard-left The Left, in part over her right-wing views on immigration and some other hot-button social issues. She holds generally left-wing positions on economic issues, and has campaigned against Germany's support for Ukraine.

The poll was conducted by telephone between August 19 to 22, and asked 1,028 randomly selected eligible voters in Saxony and 1,071 in Thuringia.

Scholz coalition parties struggling

The three parties in German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's governing coalition look set for miserable performances in both states, the poll found.

Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), which was long one of the dominant forces in German politics, polled at just 7% in Saxony and 6% in Thuringia, shockingly close to the 5% threshold needed to take parliamentary seats given the SPD's historic position.

The Greens, meanwhile, risk being shut out in both elections. The poll found support for them at 6% in Saxony and just 4% in Thuringia.

The pro-business, liberal Free Democrats (FDP), appear to have so little support in both states that the pollsters lumped the party in with "other" in the results.

Tough coalition maths in Thuringia

Forming a functioning government in Thuringia appears likely to be even more difficult after the elections.

Thuringia state premier Bodo Ramelow of the hard-left The Left party is currently leading the state at the head of a minority government with the tacit support of the conservative CDU.

But the break with Wagenknecht will likely sap Ramelow's coalition of support. His The Left polled in fourth place in the survey with 14% - down dramatically from the last election in 2019, when the party took 31% of the vote.

The CDU polled in second place with 23%.

Since nearly every party has categorically ruled out working with the AfD, a broad and uncomfortable combination of CDU, SPD and BSW might be necessary to cobble together enough support.

Election polls are generally always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party loyalty among voters and increasingly short-term election decisions make it difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.

In principle, polls only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a forecast of the election outcome.