Researcher on false expectation about rightwing surge

Finnish observers pondered on Monday what went wrong in advance analyses that kept expecting the potential right wing surge, reported news agency Xinhua.

In the Finnish vote for the European Parliament(EP), pro-EU parties made gains, while no major populist protest against the EU materialized. The only changes in the allocation of MEPs were, however, the increase of one seat by the Greens and the loss of one seat by the Center.

Timo Miettinen, a researcher at the University of Helsinki, took up the political science research result about the "two waves that follow an economic crisis".

In this case, the research was about the impact of the economic crisis that broke out in 2008. "In the first wave, the extreme political right increases support, while in the second wave the political party scene begins fragmenting and new forces rise."

Interviewed by a Finnish language newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, Miettinen said that Europe may now be in a second wave. "The rise of the Greens and the less-than-expected success of the extreme right may be associated with this fragmentation," he said.

Miettinen suspected that perhaps this would have been the "correct narrative" about the election from the start, and not that much about the rise of the right wing. He concluded that perhaps the election was "framed" wrongly in public discussion, from the start.

Media researcher Anu Koivunen raised the attitudes of media management. Koivunen took up the similarities in "the logic of current media" and in "the logic of populism". There is ample research on that, she said in social media.

In the Finnish results, the Green party made its all time highest result and were second only to the conservative National Coalition. The Greens showed a 6 percent increase in their support from the 2014 EP election and reached 16 percent.

The Greens got two seats now, and are to get a third seat if Britain leaves the EU. Miettinen saw the climate change debate as a key reason for the rise of the Greens. "In Finland the role of the EU has been underlined in the climate change combat, and it is natural that Greens' support surges in the EU election."

Even though the Conservatives had come in third in the April national parliamentary election, they attained now the top position with 20.8 percent of the votes and maintained their three MEPs. Analysts noted that the Conservative base voters are well educated and vote also in EU elections where the turnout is traditionally low.

The Social Democrats were also able to increase their support to 14.6 percent. Their former chairman Eero Heinaluoma got the highest personal vote catch at 128,000 votes, which contributed to their success. This was the first time since 1999 a Social Democrat attained the first personal position in the EP election in Finland.

In terms of personal support, Heinaluoma was followed by Ville Niinisto, the former chairman of the Greens who attained 112,000 votes, and populist Laura Huhtasaari 93,000 votes.

Commenting on the lower than expected success of the populist Finns, at 13.8 percent, researcher Miettinen said it appears the anti-EU base in Finland is smaller than earlier thought. The low turnout of 42.7 percent is also one reason. Finns Party's supporters are not so enthusiastic in voting in EP elections.

The Center Party came in fifth with 13.5 percent support and the loss of one MEP. Commentators noted that its result could have been worse without the role of long time MP Mauri Pekkarinen. After 40 years in parliament he now ran for the EP.

The Left Alliance and the Swedish Peoples Party each maintained one MP.