Finland estimates influx of up to 12,000 Ukrainian refugees this year

Russia’s attack on Ukraine will continue to have an impact on arrivals of Ukrainian refugees in Finland and the Finnish Immigration Service (Migri) estimated that about 8,000–12,000 Ukrainians will arrive for temporary protection in 2024, said Migri in a press release on Wednesday.

However, it is difficult to predict how the war in Ukraine and the number of people fleeing it will evolve.

“The number of Ukrainians applying for protection in Finland depends, among other factors, on the duration and scope of the war, the humanitarian situation in Ukraine and the situation in the receiving countries,” said Antti Lehtinen, Director of Asylum Unit.

Ukrainians are still a large segment of asylum seekers and the prolonged conflicts in Ukraine will be reflected in the number of asylum seekers.

According to Migri, migration pressure to the European Union area is expected to be high in 2024 as well. After a certain time, it can be expected to reflect in Finland, too.

As a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Finland is granting temporary protection to those fleeing Ukraine. Temporary protection differs from asylum, as the former may be granted to a specific category of people without the individual consideration of an applicant’s need for protection.

In 2023, Finland received a total of 19,426 applications for temporary protection. In comparison to other grounds for moving to Finland, the figure is significant.

Yet, it equals less than half of the number of applications submitted the previous year . In 2022 a total of 47,302 Ukrainians made applications for temporary protection.

In 2023, temporary protection was granted to 18,969 people fleeing the war in Ukraine and the number was 45,358 in 2022.

This year, the validity of temporary protection residence permits issued to those fleeing Ukraine is automatically extended until 4 March 2025.

Normally, residence permit holders wishing to extend their permits are required to submit an application. This time, the Finnish Immigration Service will automatically extend all residence permits granted for temporary protection.