Survey predicts second round vote in Presidential polls

Finnish language evening newspaper Iltalehti said on Monday that President Sauli Niinistö may not be able to gather 50 percent of the vote on the election day next Sunday.

A prognosis commissioned by the paper from analysis company Accuscore gave Niinistö 49.2 percent of the vote.

Vihreä Liitö (Green League) candidate Pekka Haavisto would be second with 13.6 percent, followed closely by independent Paavo Väyrynen with 13.2 percent. Populist Perussuomalaiset (Finns Party) candidate Laura Huhtasaari stood out from the remainder at 7.8 percent. All the others were at five percent or less.

While Haavisto has been hovering around 14 percent for months, Väyrynen continues his advance. He joined the campaign in December with his agenda strongly critical of the security policy views of Niinistö, and has since been going up in the polls.

Iltalehti was the first major paper to predict the approval rating of the current president may be less than 50 percent, although Finnish media have unanimously said Niinistö's backing is diminishing.

Previously, media reports believed the time is too short for his support to decline to such a level.

In the electoral system, a candidate will win the presidency if he or she gets over half of the vote in the first round. If no one has over half, the best two will go to the second round.

The Iltalehti prognosis was published during a live presidential panel of all the candidates. Väyrynen said the prognosis was the first that "reflects the real situation".

Haavisto said a second round looks likely now and it is "important for getting more into depth on the issues."

Niinistö said he was not surprised with the likelihood of a second round, and would like to be elected anyhow.

Local observers said the rise of Väyrynen is particularly embarrassing for the Center Party. Väyrynen is former chairman of the party but disagrees on the current policies.

The party has nominated former prime minister Matti Vanhanen to run for the presidency. Current chairman of the Center Party, Prime Mínister Juha Sipilä has said a poor performance by Vanhanen could impact his decision whether to continue as centrist chairman.

Accuscore does not carry out polls on its own, but on analyses material produced by others. It had the best prediction before the 2015 parliamentary elections. But it pointed out that presidential elections are more difficult to predict.