1 year on, Sudan war persists with no end in sight

As the war in Sudan persists for one year, the prospect for a political settlement remains bleak, as regional and international initiatives have failed to silence the guns, reported Xinhua.

Since the armed conflict broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on April 15, 2023, regional and international powers have made mediation efforts to convince the warring parties to agree on a political path to ending the conflict. Yet, no significant success has been achieved.

On May 6, 2023, Saudi Arabia and the United States put forward a peace initiative in Jeddah as the first serious attempt to end fighting in Sudan, which was later known as the Jeddah negotiation platform.

Later last May, the two warring parties signed the Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan and achieved a short-term ceasefire to facilitate emergency humanitarian assistance. However, the initiative failed to reach a comprehensive peace agreement.

To promote dialogue between the SAF and the RSF, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African bloc, adopted an initiative in Djibouti last June, including a roadmap for resolving the Sudanese conflict. However, the initiative failed to bring together the two warring parties to a negotiating table due to the boycott by the Sudanese army delegation, who accused some of the bloc's countries of supporting the RSF.

Muhammad Khalifa al-Siddiq, a professor of political science at the International University of Africa in Khartoum, attributed the failure of these initiatives to the split between them.

"The split between initiatives to resolve the Sudanese crisis has complicated the problem, and it has become clear that regional and international competition has contributed to prolonging the war," al-Siddiq told Xinhua, underscoring the need to integrate the IGAD initiative and the Jeddah platform.

He stressed that the success of any initiative for a political settlement in Sudan requires the political will of the two parties to end the war permanently.

Slightly disagreeing with al-Siddiq, Rabie Abdul Atti, a political analyst and former advisor to the Ministry of Information in Sudan, believes that the regional and international communities are part of Sudan's problem and cannot be part of the solution.

"At first, the Saudi-U.S. initiative constituted a suitable platform, but it failed to achieve a peaceful settlement due to the intersection of international and regional interests," Abdul Atti told Xinhua.

Stressing the need for a political solution that would spare Sudan from further devastation and destruction, Abdul Atti accused the RSF of being unwilling to achieve peace in Sudan.

"There is no clear goal for the RSF in this war. It was unable to form a government in areas under its control, and I do not think it wants to do so," Abdul Atti said, considering the RSF just a tool serving foreign agenda for prolonging the war and preventing any political settlement.

Sharing similar sentiment, Al-Fateh Al-Sayed, former secretary-general of the Sudanese Journalists Union, considered regional and international initiatives would not succeed in ending the deadly conflict in Sudan.

"The problem with the war in Sudan is that it is more associated with the outside than the inside. It is closely linked to the fast-growing developments in the region," Al-Sayed told Xinhua.

He added, "Under these complicated conditions, it is unlikely for any initiative to succeed in ending the conflict in Sudan. We must not greatly depend on external solutions, and a national consensus is needed."

Former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, in the meantime, warned that the continuation of the fighting threatens to inflict comprehensive collapse and devastation across the country.

In remarks on the occasion of the first anniversary of the war, Hamdok said, "Today we talk about the disasters and calamities that the war will bring onto our country, and we call for adherence to dialogue and peaceful means."

"The war which is tearing our country apart has completed its first year... Every day, the suffering of our people increases. Tens of thousands of civilians and military personnel have lost their lives, and millions have been displaced," he added.

Since the conflict broke out, 14,790 fatalities have been recorded in Sudan, while the number of people displaced has reached 8.2 million, according to the latest report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.